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Severe Weather Week: Drought and Fire Weather

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Severe Weather Week: Drought and Fire Weather

  Drought and wildfires seem to go hand in hand across Texas. Over the years, wildfires have claimed millions of acres across the Lone Star State. The drought in 2005 dried out grasses and brush and placed much of the state at risk to wildfires.

The developing La Nina pattern favors drier than normal conditions in Texas and the climate prediction center has designated much of Texas to experience continued drought conditions. This La Nina pattern is expected to persist through this spring. Maps depicting the present drought and seasonal forecasts can be found here.


A map and a listing of Texas counties that currently have a burn ban in place can be accessed here.

Not all wildfires are the same. As a matter of fact, the weather largely dictates fire behavior, controlling how quickly a fire spreads, how hot and how long the flames grow, and whether the fire is able to jump a road or other barrier. Temperature, humidity, and wind are the controlling parameters that affect fire behavior.

In some cases National Weather Service forecasters are tasked with forecasting weather conditions near an on going wildfire. These forecasts help firefighters develop a strategy to fight the fire both efficiently and safely. A sudden windshift can put fire fighters in great danger. This type of forecasting has its own name...a fire weather forecast. A local wildfire forecast is commonly called a spot forecast, due to the small area of interest.

Each Weather Service Forecast Office produces a daily fire weather forecast. You can reach those Websites by clicking here.

The Storm Prediction Center makes national fire weather forecasts for the current day and the following day. This information can be found on their home page here.