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CBS 11 News Poll Puts Clinton Ahead In Texas

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Feb 18, 2008 3:55 pm US/Central

CBS 11 News Poll Puts Clinton Ahead In Texas

Reporting
Jay Gormley

In an exclusive CBS11 / KRLD 1080 AM election poll, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by a slim margin—but the results are highly dependent upon the turnout of Hispanic voters.

Among all voters, Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama 50% to 45%.  But in the poll, Clinton leads among Hispanic voters by a 2-to-1 margin. SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll, estimates that Hispanic voters comprise 32% of Democratic primary voters in Texas.  If Hispanic voters turn out in large numbers, Clinton's overall lead will be larger than the 5 points shown in these results.

"We'll have Dolores Huerta in town tomorrow. She's the co-founder of the United Farm Workers. She is very well-known and well-respected in the Latino community, and she is going to work to help people get out and vote early," said Jessica Santillo, a spokesperson for the Clinton campaign.

Among white voters, Clinton leads by 12%.  Among black voters, Obama leads by 57 points.

Among men, Obama has a 20 point lead.  Among women voters, Clinton leads by 27.

"The main thing we find with the Latino community is that it is important for them to get to know Senator Obama," said Debbie Mesloh, a spokesperson for the Obama campaign. "We're up against a dominant name brand, someone that they've known for the past 20 years."

Here in North Texas, the Democratic candidates are in a statistical tie.  Clinton has a two point lead, 49% to 47%.

On the Republican side, John McCain leads among all voters, 50% to 37%.  SurveyUSA says that because McCain has nearly secured the nomination, a certain degree of apathy might affect turnout among his supporters in Texas.

Huckabee is counting on conservative Republicans to keep him alive, but even Texas conservatives are leaning toward McCain.

"All he has to do is stop John McCain from getting to 1191 [delegates]," said Buddy Pilgrim, a spokesperson for the Huckabee campaign. "If he does that, then this goes to the convention floor."

"It's a matter of turning that strong support into people going out and making their voices heard," said Santillo.

For complete survey results for the Democratic primary, click here (Adobe .pdf format).

For the complete results on the Republican side, click here (Adobe .pdf format).

Early voting begins Tuesday. The Texas primary is March 4.

SurveyUSA conducted the poll for CBS 11 News and KRLD 1080 AM.  The firm interviewed 660 likely Texas Democratic voters and 505 likely Texas Republican voters from February 16, 2008 through February 18, 2008. The margin of error in the Democratic poll is +/- 3.9%; in the Republican poll it is 4.5%.

(© MMVIII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)