U.S. & World

NEW YORK (CBS) ― Shopping on Black Friday can be daunting, with massive crowds, pre-dawn start times and long checkout lines.

Roughly 77 million Americans are expected to head to stores Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and often considered the start of the holiday shopping season, and the frenzy will continue through the weekend.

Many Black Friday circulars have already appeared online, to the dismay of some retailers.

Web sites like Black Friday Ads and Slick Deals are popular among some Internet users. Online giants Amazon.com and Walmart.com have already started previewing some deals.

Some deal hunters are even turning to Twitter to stay abreast of the breaking deals, following search terms and hash tags that included "Black Friday."

To help guide those looking to scoop up tech toys, CNET has put out its annual Holiday Tech Guide.
 
But whether it's worth participating in the annual post-Thanksgiving day tradition depends on who's shopping, what they want and all the costs involved.

• CBS MoneyWatch: 5 Things You Need To Know
• ZDNet: Deal, Steals And Specials Guide
• CNET Review: Top 15 Black Friday Tech Deals

Here are some things to keep in mind.

• THE SHOPPER: This is the biggest factor. Some people love the thrill of the chase. They want to score a deal, and they like the tradition. To them, Black Friday is worth the effort no matter the hassle.

"There is a visceral excitement to going to stores on Black Friday; it's almost like a sporting event," said Dan de Grandpre, editor in chief of online shopping and discount guide dealnews.com.

Even though promotions pervade the season, the ideal Black Friday Shopper responds to the sense of urgency and exclusivity that retailers create for that day with early openings (think 4 a.m.) and a limited number of items discounted, said Steven Hoch, a marketing professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton business school.

Others want nothing to do with it. And for some it's a default tradition, a means to get out of the house after overeating on Thanksgiving, a break from bad weather and an activity every family member can participate in.

"I think it's out of total boredom," Hoch said.

• THE ITEM: Retailers count on the excitement of Black Friday to ignite holiday shopping so they use big, attention-grabbing discounts to lure shoppers. The most notable deals are usually on big-ticket purchases like televisions, computers and other electronics, de Grandpre said.

There may be more discounts this year on smaller items like sweat shirts or coffee pots to cater to shoppers' more modest ways. But the big splash is where the big savings lie.

"Those are the things that get people whipped into a frenzy," de Grandpre said.

Just bear in mind that retailers tend to make their most significant cuts on lower-priced versions of products because they know they can continue to sell higher-end items the rest of the year.

"If the deal made you say 'Wow!' ... that tells you that the deal is probably worth it," de Grandpre said. "If it doesn't make you say that, then why do it? You don't get a lot of days off."

Some retailers caution that with much less inventory this year, they may no longer have everything you want closer to Christmas, and you may see fewer end-of-season deals.

• THE COSTS: After you determine (ahead of time) what you should pay for the items you want (consumers are comparison-shopping more than they have in years, according to the NPD Group), then decide whether your savings will be worth your additional costs.

Count the value of your time, the gas to get to the store and circle for parking, the extra snacks at the food court and any other costs you incur simply because you are shopping.

Also remember the add-ons: the cable to go with the super-cheap television and the impulse purchases you make while roaming the aisles when they're out of the item you came for.

One of the easiest ways to limit those added costs is to shop online.

Many retailers offer the same deals online as in the stores — and sometimes they start the day before or sooner.

"You could go to the store and deal with the hassle. Or you could stay home in your jammies," de Grandpre said. "I'm generally inclined toward the latter."


FAQs: The Nuts And Bolts Of Black Friday

Q. Is Black Friday the busiest day of the season and year?

A. Historically, no. Recently, yes.

Ellen Davis, spokeswoman at the National Retail Federation, said that traditionally the Saturday before Christmas had been the biggest sales day. But that day has taken a back seat in recent years as the tough economy has made shoppers focus on pre-dawn early specials. "In a recession, there's a greater response to the big deals," she said.

In fact, ShopperTrak, a research firm that tracks sales and traffic at more than 50,000 stores, says that Black Friday has been the top sales day every year but one since it started monitoring holiday data in 2002; the only exception was in 2004, when the Saturday before Christmas stole the crown.

Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, expects that Black Friday will maintain that status again this year.

Q. How important is Black Friday to retailers? Does Black Friday and the Thanksgiving weekend predict holiday spending?

A. Thanksgiving weekend may be the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, but it doesn't necessarily provide a complete forecast of holiday sales.

Last year, the Thanksgiving shopping weekend accounted for 11.6 percent of overall holiday sales, according to ShopperTrak. Black Friday itself made up almost half of that.

Still, retailers closely study buying patterns for the weekend to gauge shoppers' mindset -- what kinds of items they're buying, what deals are luring them. This Black Friday, analysts will dissect whether shoppers stick with necessities like socks and coats, and fewer discretionary items like flat-screen TVs. They will also examine whether shoppers are focused only on the early morning specials and not buying anything else.

Stores also know that if they have a weak start, there's a slim chance they'll be able to make up the lost sales.

Last year, sales for the Thanksgiving weekend fell 1.01 percent -- weak but not disastrous, according to MasterCard Advisors' SpendingPulse. But shoppers cut back even more as the season went on, pushing overall sales for November and December down 6.3 percent, according to the data service, which provides an estimate of spending in all forms, including cash.

Q. So what's expected this weekend?

A. Many analysts expect sales for the weekend to be unchanged compared with last year, even though the National Retail Federation trade group projects bigger crowds. That's because individual shoppers are likely to cut back on their spending even more this year.

Another reason is that stores, particularly apparel merchants, are competing with last year's big clearance sales as they desperately sought to liquidate inventory following the sudden halt in consumer spending.

Q. What will drive shoppers to the stores?

A. Deep price cuts on big-ticket items like flat-panel TVs, GPS systems and netbooks, says Dan de Grandpre, editor-in-chief of online shopping and discount guide dealnews.com.

But this season, there are already hard-to-find items like Cepia LLC's Zhu Zhu pet hamsters that are expected to draw shoppers to stores for limited quantities.

Toys R Us is giving the first 100 customers in line at its stores on Black Friday a ticket for the opportunity to purchase the robotic hamster.

(© 2010 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)

Got Something To Say?

• Leave Comments On TXA 21's Facebook Page
• Follow CBS 11 News On Twitter!
• Leave Comments In Our Blogs
• Send Us An E-Mail
• Check Out Other Ways To Stay Connected