Politics

AUSTIN (AP) ― Republican House Speaker Tom Craddick, who only months ago seemed to be hanging on to his powerful job by a thread, has emerged from the latest round of elections considerably strengthened. For now anyway.

After fending off a bitter palace coup attempt last year, Craddick gained more supporters than he lost in primary elections March 4 and in the April 8 runoffs.

But a more telling indication of Craddick's momentum came last week, after the primary and runoffs were settled: one of his most ardent critics, Republican Rep. Todd Smith of Bedford, announced his allegiance to the one-time foe.

Smith told Texas Weekly, an online political newsletter, that since the primary results, he no longer believes another Republican can beat Craddick.

"The facts changed and I am reacting to the facts ... I no longer see a scenario where we get a Republican speaker who is not Craddick," Smith said.

Two of Craddick's biggest wins came in West Texas with the defeat of veteran Republicans who had joined the effort to overthrow him. Both Republican Rep. Pat Haggerty of El Paso and Rep. Buddy West of Odessa were defeated by Craddick allies.

"It's clear that the speaker was strengthened by the primary and particularly by the runoffs," said Republican consultant Eric Bearse, who does some work for Craddick.

Bearse said those victories, along with Smith's support, show that Craddick has gained "really strong momentum."

As speaker, Craddick has been called the most powerful man in Texas government. He has the power to set the agenda and control which bills are taken up.

But the House vote to elect their next leader is nine months away, when the Legislature convenes in January. Craddick needs a majority -- 76 lawmakers -- to win another term.

And holding on to his support for nine months will be no small feat.

"He increased his strength, but it's very possibly going to turn out to be a short-term increase," said Kelly Fero, a Democratic consultant.

The 2008 decision has been harkened as a change election, and Texas will be no different come Nov. 4, Fero said.

Record voter turnout in March "underscored the hunger for change out there."

"This is truly a transformational election," he said. "The biggest reason is that people on all sides of the political spectrum are frustrated on the current state of affairs and are going to vote for what they perceive as change."

Craddick, a Midland Republican, triumphed over a coup attempt at the end of last year's legislative session by asserting "absolute authority" and refusing to allow the parliamentary maneuver that would have resulted in a House vote on ousting him.

The decision capped a tense week filled with speculation and harsh criticism of the speaker. Republicans enjoy a 79-71 advantage in the House, but both Democrats and Republicans came together to rebel against Craddick, who they say rules like a dictator and that his win-at-all-cost style often forces them to vote against the interests of their own districts.

But that was in the middle of his two-year term, which expires in January. Next time, Craddick won't be able to use the rules to thwart a vote.

A handful of House veterans already have filed the necessary paperwork to run against him as speaker.

Some of his gains in March still face formidable November challenges. And if Democrats pick up any extra seats in the chamber, it will hurt Craddick.

"I'd much rather have a D after my name if I'm running for office this year," Fero said.

Still Bearse predicted the heavy Democratic turnout in the March primary was a fluke buoyed by two popular candidates and Texans would return to their Republican tendencies come November.

"No one better understands the dynamics of winning a political coalition than Speaker Craddick and he goes about this business steadily, everyday," Bearse said. "Quite simply, no one will outwork him. I'm confident the recent trends leaves him in great position to be re-elected speaker.

"He should never be discounted."

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